SK

Sardine: Kalshi crypto settlement history

info.sardine/sardine

How often Kalshi BTC/ETH/XRP contracts settled YES, counted not forecast, with a public record

Yes, your AI can use this right now.Answered a live MCP handshake in 167 ms with no sign-in needed and exposes 9 tools.

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URL: https://sardine.info/mcp

9 tools, pulled live

Pulled straight from the server with tools/list on 2026-10-27.
list_marketsread-only

List the Kalshi series Sardine covers, and whether each is currently served. Each entry gives the Sardine key (e.g. "BTC-15M"), the Kalshi series ticker, the window length, and the latest calibration check: the largest gap, in probability points, between what Sardine published and what then settled.

get_settlement_rateread-only

How often has a contract like this one settled in favour of `side`? Uses the asset's live spot price. Give the contract's strike (target price), the minutes left until it settles, and optionally Kalshi's ask in dollars (0.01-0.99) to get Kalshi's fee and all-in price on the same line. Returns the historical settlement rate, its 95% interval, the number of

get_live_boardread-only

Open Kalshi contracts right now, each with Sardine's historical count. No prices. Optionally filter to one market. Each row has the contract, the minutes left, the historical settlement rate with its interval and sample size, and a one-sentence summary of the count. Kalshi's prices are deliberately NOT included (pending Kalshi's Redistribution licence): read them f

get_rate_tableread-only

The full lookup table behind every Sardine number for one series. Each row is a (distance-from-strike, time-left) bucket: distance in volatility units, seconds left, the share that settled YES, its 95% interval, and the number of independent windows counted.

get_track_recordread-only

How accurate Sardine's published numbers have been, scored against settlements. For each series and probability bucket: what Sardine said, what actually settled, and the miss in points. Use this before relying on any number.

list_datasetsread-only

Downloadable CSV history files, with row counts, date ranges and URLs. Files open directly in Excel, pandas or any CSV reader. Credit "Sardine (sardine.info)" when you use them.

backtest_ruleread-only

Would this rule have made money? Replays recorded Kalshi quotes, second by second. Describe a rule for Kalshi's 15-minute crypto up/down contracts: which side to buy, when (minutes left), at what prices (cents), and optionally only when Sardine's history beats Kalshi's ask plus fee by `min_gap_cents` (side BEST picks whichever side has the larger gap). Sardine repl

backtest_signalsread-only

Replay YOUR OWN signals on recorded per-second Kalshi quotes, after fees. `signals` is a list of {"ts": <UTC epoch seconds>, "side": "YES"|"NO", "contracts": <int>} (at most 5,000). Each one is treated like a trigger: the ask seen at that second for that side, a limit order landing after `latency_seconds`, filled only up to the size resting there, Kalshi's

get_zread-only

Where a contract sits in the table's coordinates right now: spot, sigma_1m, z and the bucket. For a builder running the table offline against Kalshi's feed: the formula is returned with the numbers. No settlement rate here; use get_rate_table for the cells and get_settlement_rate for the count.

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