Russia–NATO risk ladder
Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
Connect it
Settings → Connectors → Add custom connector
URL: https://mcp.russianato.site/mcpSettings → Apps & Connectors → Advanced → Developer mode
Create connector with URL: https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp{
"mcpServers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}claude mcp add --transport http risk-ladder https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp{
"servers": {
"risk-ladder": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}8 tools, verified live
get_overviewread-onlyStart here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
get_risk_ladderread-onlyAnnual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
get_forecast_historyread-onlyPublished Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
get_intelligence_assessmentsread-onlyPublic assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
get_sourcesread-onlyThe 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
get_other_forecastsread-onlyPrediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
get_changelogread-onlySignificant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
get_methodologyread-onlyLevel definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.
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