Nerai MCP

List the 60 countries covered by NERAI's daily risk indices (code + name), plus platform metadata (as-of dates, calibration).

Full NERAI risk read for one country: HMM regime state (Calm/Tension/Crisis with escalation probability and persistence), resilience score, and risk topics as percentiles of the 30-day average vs each series' own history (now / 90d ago / delta), with calibrated shock probabilities at 4/9/13/26-week horizons. Returns the 8 most elevated topics by default; set all_topics=true for all 40, or pass top

NERAI's causal network for a country: Granger-significant lead-lag relationships (p<0.01) showing which risk signals lead which others, with the lag in days and F-statistic. Use to explain WHY a risk is building, not just that it is.

Platform-wide early warning: the series with the highest calibrated shock probabilities right now, and the biggest 90-day percentile movers (risers and fallers) across all 60 countries. The fastest way to ask 'what should I be watching?'

Rank countries on a given risk topic by current percentile, with the 90-day change and regime state. Use for portfolio or footprint screening (e.g. 'rank protest risk across our markets').

Global supply-chain picture: NY Fed GSCPI (with its required notice), country disruption readings and NERAI's supply-disruption forecast board. Chokepoint transit series are not included in this edition (chokepoint_transits is null).

Benchmark commodity prices from licensed open sources: U.S. EIA daily spot (Brent, WTI, Henry Hub; public domain) with 7- and 30-day changes, and World Bank Pink Sheet monthly averages (European gas, wheat, maize, urea; CC BY 4.0) with the month-on-month change. Each row carries its source and frequency.

The sanctions picture in one call: restricted-party register counts by list and type, the Russia shadow-fleet enforcement index, Russia economic-impact measures and recent enforcement actions.

Chokepoint vessel picture from licensed sources. Live AIS vessel counts are NOT available in this edition (available=false, counts null). Where published, the Strait of Hormuz carries Copernicus Sentinel-1 radar vessel presence (30-day rolling, % vs the 2025 same-orbit baseline): vessels present in radar scenes, not transits.

Risk state of the 8 monitored maritime corridors (Hormuz, Suez, Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb, Black Sea, Malacca, Taiwan Strait, E. Mediterranean, South China Sea): GDELT-based threat/activity scores, phase, news and sanctions intensity, NERAI read. Transit and cost-pressure fields are kept for compatibility but are null in this edition.

NERAI CHPL circumvention-corridor intensity scores (0-100, ordinal) for Russia-bound diversion routes of controlled microelectronics, with goods and watch items.

NERAI's open calibrated forecasts (binary questions with probabilities and horizons) across sanctions, geopolitical risk, chokepoints, maritime, supply-chain and conflict. Every open question is re-scored every 2 days, so each one carries its probability history, the change since it was filed and since the last review, and the reason the latest review gave. Set include_archive to also return close

Look up an HS code against the Common High Priority List — the goods the US, EU, UK and Japan jointly identify as most frequently diverted. Requires a six-digit code: a four-digit heading returns the CHPL subheadings it contains and asks for HS6, because the goods within one heading differ materially and NERAI does not infer a classification it was not given.

Published enforcement actions (ECJU compound settlements, OFSI penalties, BIS denial orders, OFAC civil penalties) that share features with a described shipment. A case qualifies only if it shares the commodity or the behaviour AND the destination or route — shared geography alone is not a precedent. Returns the shared features and a link to the authority's own published action. The score counts s

What NERAI's transaction layer currently covers: register size and per-source health, enforcement corpus size by authority, CHPL vintage, and which checks require the platform rather than this connector. Use it to know what a full assessment would add.

Latest official trade-control / sanctions changes from the NERAI TradeControl Action Desk: UK Sanctions List & US CSL diffs and CELEX-anchored EU Official Journal acts, each with legal instrument and source link.