Foresea Forecasting

Call this whenever the user asks about probability, likelihood, or whether something will happen. Good triggers: "Will X happen?", "What are the chances of Y?", "How likely is Z?", "What's the probability that…", "Do you think X will…", "Should I bet on…". Returns a calibrated YES/NO probability (or numeric/date range) with written rationale and supporting news evid

Call this when the user mentions a specific prediction market by URL, slug, or ticker — or asks whether a particular market is over/underpriced. Good triggers: "Is this Polymarket fair?", "What's the edge on kalshi:XXXXX?", "Should I buy/sell this market?", user pastes a Polymarket or Kalshi URL. Fetches the live price, gathers evidence, forecasts, computes model-vs

Call this when the user wants to find mispriced or interesting markets, not evaluate a specific one. Good triggers: "What should I bet on?", "Find me trading opportunities", "Which markets are mispriced right now?", "What's Foresea's best edge today?", "Scan Polymarket for opportunities". Returns markets ranked by model-vs-market disagreement, each with model

Call this when the user wants current price/volume for several markets at once -- a watchlist, a portfolio, "check on these 5 markets" -- instead of calling foresea_analyze_market once per market. Each ref is "platform:ident", e.g. "kalshi:KXFED-25JUN-H" or "polymarket:some-market-slug". Every quote carries fetched_at and age_seconds so you can judge freshne

Call this after foresea_analyze_market timed out or errored with a message naming a client_run_key -- the research it started may still be running server-side. Returns {"status": "running", ...} if it's not done yet (call again in a bit), or the full report once it is. Do not call this speculatively; only use the client_run_key a prior foresea_analyze_market

Call this when the user asks how reliable or accurate Foresea is, or wants to know whether to trust a forecast. Good triggers: "How good is Foresea?", "What's the track record?", "Has it been right before?", "Is it calibrated?", "What's the Brier score?". Returns accuracy, Brier score, calibration (ECE), and skill-vs-market broken down by time horizon. Pass optional

Call this when the user wants the current top trading opportunities with explicit trade directions and historical backing. Good triggers: "What are the best bets right now?", "Show me the edge board", "Which model is winning the paper-trading competition?", "What's the strongest edge today?", "Are these edges statistically significant?". Returns open markets ranked

Read public historical markets/candles/trades, batch books/midpoints/spreads, fees, holders, open interest, event volume, milestones and weather. Omit operation to discover operation names and schemas. No account or write access.

Call this to check Kalshi exchange operational status (trading active flag) and operational hours/schedule.

Call this to fetch the live bids and asks orderbook depth for a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. 'KXFED-25JUN-H') or Polymarket YES-token ID.

Call this to sample Polymarket's category vocabulary. Each entry is a label and the slug that identifies it. This is one page of at most 100 tags, not the full taxonomy: Polymarket has tens of thousands, and the endpoint returns a fixed slice that is ordered neither alphabetically nor by market activity. So absence here does not mean a tag is unused, presen

Call this to retrieve historical price series or OHLC candlesticks for a market (e.g. Kalshi ticker or Polymarket token/slug).

Call this to fetch real-time sports game statistics, play-by-play data, and live event feeds from Kalshi. Provide event_ticker for event charts, or milestone_id with data_type="game_stats" for play-by-play.

Call this to fetch Polymarket metadata: event series listings, community discussion comments for a market, or sports league metadata (target: 'series', 'comments', 'sports', 'teams'). 'series' lists the series and how many events each holds, not the events themselves -- fetch a series by slug for those. 'sports' lists every league with the ids that link it

Call this to fetch recent public executed trades / trade tape (prices, sizes, timestamps) on Kalshi or Polymarket.

Call this to fetch the top profitable prediction market trader leaderboard and rankings from Polymarket.

Conduct an adversarial multi-agent debate (Bull vs. Bear vs. Chief Risk Judge) to cross-examine evidence and isolate blind spots on a forecasting question.

Calculate optimal mathematical Fractional Kelly capital allocations and position sizes across live Grade A/B prediction market opportunities.

Fetch the real-time unified Foresea Alpha & Agent Feed, combining live prediction market edge signals, autonomous agent trades & theses, and leaderboard standings.

Scan live temperature and weather prediction markets (Kalshi KXHIGHNY, KXHIGHCHI, KXHIGHMIA, KXHIGHAUS, KXHIGHDEN, KXHIGHPHIL, etc.) against neural weather models (Google DeepMind WeatherNext 3 / MetNet) and high-resolution multi-model ensembles, calibrated with station microclimate bias profiles. Returns ranked mispricings, strike bracket probabilities, and model-v

Retrieve neural model weather forecasts (Google Maps Weather API / WeatherNext 3 / MetNet, ECMWF, GFS, GraphCast) with empirical station bias correction (e.g. KNYC Central Park, KMDW Chicago Midway, KDEN Denver) and strike bracket probability calculations for weather prediction markets.

Submit up to 25 forecasting questions concurrently and receive structured predictions with confidence probabilities, bull/bear factor decomposition, key catalysts, and evidence citations for each question.

Scan real-time Kalshi cryptocurrency prediction markets (KXBTCD threshold contracts) scored against Black-Scholes zero-drift diffusion models and spot volatility. Returns tradeable market mispricings, implied odds, calibration reliability, and realized paper equity curves.

Subscribe an external agent HTTP callback webhook to receive real-time dispatches for new forecasts and market edge opportunities. The response contains an HMAC secret (X-Foresea-Signature) for validating incoming payloads.

Check real prediction-market trading readiness, max order notional limits, and venue configuration statuses for Kalshi and Polymarket.

Validate, normalize, and simulate guardrail checks for a real Kalshi or Polymarket order without submitting it to the exchange.

Submit a guarded real order to Kalshi or Polymarket. Live execution requires confirmation='PLACE REAL ORDER' and execute=True, and is protected by server notional ceilings and exchange guardrails.

Cancel an active open order on Kalshi or Polymarket using its venue order ID.