Weather Markets Edge Desk
Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.
Connect it
Settings → Connectors → Add custom connector
URL: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registrySettings → Apps & Connectors → Advanced → Developer mode
Create connector with URL: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry{
"mcpServers": {
"weather": {
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}claude mcp add --transport http weather https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry{
"servers": {
"weather": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}7 tools, verified live
weather_boardread-onlyUse for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.
edge_alertsread-onlyUse for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi â weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings â with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.
convert_probabilityread-onlyConvert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
base_rate_gapread-onlyUse for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
bayes_updateread-onlyUpdate a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".
calculate_evread-onlyUse for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_sizeread-onlyCompute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".
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